Who Is the Most Accurate Groundhog? What the Records Really Show

Every February 2, Punxsutawney Phil gets most of the attention—but fame does not make him the most accurate groundhog. The harder question is whether any Groundhog Day animal can honestly be crowned the most accurate at all.

Groundhog predictions are folklore and entertainment, not meteorological forecasts.

How Accurate Is Punxsutawney Phil?

Phil has been making ceremonial predictions in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, since the 19th century. According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Phil was correct about 30% of the time over the 10-year period covered in its 2026 update.

That is well below what anyone would consider a reliable forecasting record—and NOAA itself treats the tradition as a fun cultural event rather than a serious weather-prediction method.

Why “Most Accurate Groundhog” Is Hard to Prove

The biggest problem is that different groundhogs are judged using different time periods, geographic areas and definitions of “early spring” or “six more weeks of winter.” Some local organizations publish their own success rates, while others use informal or promotional claims.

That means a percentage for Staten Island Chuck cannot automatically be compared with a percentage for Wiarton Willie, Shubenacadie Sam or General Beauregard Lee unless the same scoring method is used for all of them.

Staten Island Chuck

Staten Island Chuck is one of the best-known rivals to Punxsutawney Phil and has built a strong local following in New York. He is often described as having a better record than Phil, but published accuracy figures vary depending on the source and the period being measured.

The safest conclusion is that Chuck has a reputation for doing relatively well, not that a single universally accepted dataset proves he is the champion.

Wiarton Willie and Shubenacadie Sam

Canada has several well-known Groundhog Day forecasters, including Wiarton Willie in Ontario and Shubenacadie Sam in Nova Scotia. Both are major parts of their local celebrations, but the same comparison problem applies: different organizers and media outlets cite different records and methods.

Because those figures are not standardized against the same weather benchmark, we would not rank one above the others based on a single percentage.

General Beauregard Lee

General Beauregard Lee in Georgia is another frequently mentioned contender. Some reports have credited the event with a strong historical record, but those claims are not directly comparable with NOAA’s evaluation of Punxsutawney Phil.

So Who Is the Most Accurate Groundhog?

There is no definitive answer. Punxsutawney Phil is the most famous, but NOAA’s recent analysis shows a weak recent record. Other groundhogs are often credited with higher percentages, but the scoring systems are inconsistent enough that declaring one official winner would overstate the evidence.

The best answer is: there is no scientifically established “most accurate” groundhog.

Does Groundhog Day Predict Weather?

Not in a scientific sense. Modern seasonal forecasting relies on large-scale climate patterns, atmospheric observations and numerical models—not whether a groundhog sees its shadow on one morning in one location.

Groundhog Day works better as folklore, community tradition and a bit of midwinter fun than as a forecasting system.

Bottom Line

Punxsutawney Phil remains the celebrity of Groundhog Day, but his recent NOAA-reviewed accuracy is low. Rival groundhogs may claim better records, yet no standardized dataset establishes a single most accurate forecaster across North America.

Enjoy the ceremony, but keep the actual weather planning with professional forecasts.